To what extent may Iran be able to repel an Israeli attack?
Iran's Tehran In response to missile and drone strikes carried out by Tehran in retribution for the fatal bombing of its consulate in Syria earlier this month, Israel has vowed to "exact a price" from Tehran.
Following Iran's unprecedented direct attacks on Israel on Saturday, Israel's war council has convened multiple times to discuss how to respond diplomatically. According to Israeli army Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi, a military reaction is inevitable.
In the event that Israel chooses to conduct a direct military attack on Iranian territory, Iranian President Raisi pledged on Wednesday to respond with a "massive and harsh response." In the event that Iran is attacked, how well will it be able to defend itself?
depending on regional defense forces
Iran has been pushing its economy for decades to rely more and more on domestic resources; the country's military has also been pushing for this same localization.
The eight-year conflict between Iran and its neighbor, Iraq, which invaded Iran in 1980 under the leadership of former dictator Saddam Hussein, is largely to blame for this mindset. The United States was among the many foreign powers that provided Baghdad with military support.
Iran's air superiority is still greatly challenged by decades of sanctions and embargoes; some of its fighter jets and equipment, such as the US-made F-4 and F-5 fighter jets, date back to before the revolution of 1979, which toppled Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi's monarchy, which was supported by the West.
Nowadays, Iran primarily uses Soviet-era Russian Sukhoi and MiG fighter aircraft. Although the Iranian air force has been producing its own aircraft, such as the US-designed Saeqeh and Kowsar, they are not thought to be able to compete with Israel's heavily deployed F-35s, which are among the best fighters in the world.
Although negotiations have been going on for some time, the arrival of two dozen Su-35 fighter jets built in Russia might greatly revitalize the Iranian air force, but it would still require strong air defense batteries.
batteries for long-range missiles
Iran has made an effort to offset the depreciation of its homegrown fighter jets with expansive missile development plans. In addition to burying parts of its airbases, missile depots, and nuclear installations deep under the mountains to protect them from bunker buster munitions supplied to Israel by the US, it has concentrated especially on enhancing its air defense systems. During its six-month war on Gaza, Israel has made heavy use of the bunker buster bombs provided by the US.
The locally manufactured Bavar-373, which went into service in 2019 following ten years of research and testing, is Iran's longest-range missile defense system. Since then, it has undergone substantial improvements.
Iranian officials unveiled an upgraded Bavar-373 in November 2022. They said it was fitted with sophisticated Sayyad 4B surface-to-air missiles and could detect radar targets up to 450 km (280 miles) away.
It is said to be able to follow sixty targets, engage six targets at once, lock on targets at a distance of up to 400 km, and hit targets at a range of up to 300 km (186 miles), including long-range ballistic missiles, drones, and stealth fighter jets.
According to Iranian official media, the system is even similar to the more sophisticated S-400 batteries, which are among the most advanced systems in the world, and is in some ways superior to the Russian-made S-300 system. Although the Bavar-373 has not been in combat outside of Iranian military drills, experts believe it to be a part of one of the world's densest air defense networks.
Iran also has S-300 missile defense systems in addition to Russia's Tor defense systems. Following the execution of its now-stalled nuclear deal with foreign powers in 2016, Tehran was granted the latter.
First deployed by the Soviet Union in the late 1970s, the S-300 systems are intended to shoot down incoming cruise missiles, drones, and aircraft.
Systems of missile defense layers
Several other indigenously built missile defense batteries are in operation in Iran, employing a diverse range of missiles to fortify defenses behind the most distant systems.
Arman, Tactical Sayyad, and Khordad-15 are just a few of the medium-range defense systems that can protect Iranian skies from targets at up to 200 km (124 miles) away at varying altitudes.
Arman, which was announced in November 2022, is mounted on the back of military trucks and ready to deploy within minutes. It is intended to counter tactical ballistic weapons intended for use in the battlefield within less than 300 kilometers (186 miles) and is available in two versions that use electronically scanned array radars, which are accurate and challenging to jam.
The Arman system is fitted with missiles meant to counteract precisely guided, "bunker buster" weapons, which are meant to blow up underground or reinforced buildings.
Iran's Azarakhsh, Majid, and Zoubin short-range batteries will confront any intruders who are able to get past the mid-range defenses. See the video below to see the Azarakhsh.
Simultaneously unveiled with Arman is Azarakhsh, a small system intended for low-altitude engagements against drones and quadcopters. It has a 50km (31 mile) detection range, and an optical tracker can follow targets up to 25km (16 miles).
Since several Iranian missile defense systems can be fired vertically, providing more flexibility and space, warships are also able to deploy them.
In late March, a senior military official stated that Iran intends to unveil additional missile defense systems this year.
A vast array of attack and reconnaissance drones, some of which were deployed during Iran's strike on Israel on Saturday, as well as a variety of ballistic and cruise missiles with a maximum range of 2,000 kilometers (1,243 miles) are also in the arsenals of the Iranian army and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC).
What about cyberattacks and sabotage?
Over a decade of a covert conflict with Iran that has progressively seen its face revealed, it is thought that Israel has depended on unconventional warfare to strike against Iranian targets.
Israel has frequently used explosives and a satellite-controlled machine gun installed on a pickup truck to kill nuclear scientists and destroy important Iranian nuclear sites.
Several significant cyberattacks, including those on national networks that run important ports, airports, and gas stations, have also been generally suspected to be the result of it. Iran has formally accused Israel of being behind many of these assaults.
Over the years, Iran has suffered severe losses as a result of these attacks, but it has also learnt to recover and fortify its defenses.
The National Organization for Passive Defence is the principal state organization in Iran tasked with preventing cyberattacks; according to officials, they defend against hundreds or perhaps thousands of attacks every day.
Over the years, a number of cyberattacks on Israeli interests have been linked to Iranian hackers. The Israeli daily Haaretz revealed on Tuesday that a website with ties to Iran has been up since the beginning.
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